When AOV falls but orders rise

A busy week with a softer average order value is not automatically a failure. It often means a promotion pulled in smaller baskets while loyal customers kept their usual spend. The reporting task is to separate those groups before anyone rewrites the ranging plan.

Start by splitting the week into promo-tagged and untagged orders if your extract allows it. Then chart average order value for each stream. If the untagged stream is stable, the campaign is diluting the average without necessarily harming core customers. If both streams fall, look at stockouts on higher-priced lines or a shift in channel mix.

In our packs we mark these weeks with a simple red callout and a one-sentence hypothesis. The hypothesis is provisional — merchandising still has to test it — but it stops the meeting from treating a blended average as a single story.